Counterintuitive Behavior of Social Systems

This paper addresses several social concerns: population trends; quality of urban life; policies for urban growth; and the unexpected, ineffective, or detrimental results often generated by government programs. Society becomes frustrated as repeated attacks on deficiencies in social systems lead only to worse symptoms. Legislation is debated and passed with great hope, but many programs prove to be ineffective. Results are often far short of expectations. Because dynamic behavior of social systems is not understood, government programs often cause exactly the reverse of desired results. The field of system dynamics now can explain how such contrary results happen. Fundamental reasons cause people to misjudge behavior of social systems. Orderly processes in creating human judgment and intuition lead people to wrong decisions when faced with complex and highly interacting systems. Until we reach a much better public understanding of social systems, attempts to develop corrective programs for social troubles will continue to be disappointing. This paper cautions against continuing to depend on the same past approaches that have led to present feelings of frustration. New methods developed over the last 30 years will lead to a better understanding of social systems and thereby to more effective policies for guiding the future. 1 Updated March, 1995. This paper was first copyrighted © 1971 by Jay W. Forrester. It is based on testimony for the Subcommittee on Urban Growth of the Committee on Banking and Currency, U.S. House of Representatives, on October 7, 1970. The original text appeared in the January, 1971, issue of the Technology Review published by the Alumni Association of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. All figures are taken from World Dynamics by Jay W. Forrester, Productivity Press, Portland, Oregon. 2 Germeshausen Professor Emeritus and Senior Lecturer, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA Copyright © 1995 Jay W. Forrester